Final: Natus Vincere (36.5%) to beat Team Vitality (28.1%)

Semifinal 1: Natus Vincere (52.6%) to beat MOUZ (16.3%)

Semifinal 2: Team Vitality (47.7%) to beat G2 Esports (18.7%)

Quarterfinal 1: G2 Esports (39.8%) to beat FaZe Clan (32.8%)

Quarterfinal 2: MOUZ (35.9%) to beat Eternal Fire (24.7%)

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Group stage: 

1. Natus Vincere – 48.7% to finish 1st; 17.0% to finish 2nd; 84.1% to make playoffs

2. Team Vitality – 40.8% to finish 1st; 17.4% to finish 2nd; 77.7% to make playoffs

3. G2 Esports – 19.3% to finish 1st; 20.4% to finish 2nd; 56.7% to make playoffs

4. MOUZ – 14.5% to finish 1st; 21.8% to finish 2nd; 53.0% to make playoffs

5. FaZe Clan – 13.9% to finish 1st; 21.0% to finish 2nd; 50.2% to make playoffs

6. Eternal Flame – 40.7% to finish 1st; 16.2% to finish 2nd; 40.7% to make playoffs

7. Liquid – 16.3% to finish 7-8th; 35.7% to make playoffs

8. Virtus.pro – 15.4% to finish 7-8th; 29.9% to make playoffs

9. Astralis – 28.9% to finish 9-12th; 31.5% to make playoffs

10. The MongolZ – 32.7% to finish 9-12th; 25.4% to make playoffs

11. Complexity – 34.3% to finish 9-12th; 21.2% to make playoffs

12. Heroic – 26.8% to finish 9-12th; 23.5% to make playoffs

13. paiN – 36.5% to finish 13-16th; 21.0% to make playoffs

14. FURIA – 36.4% to finish 13-16th; 20.9% to make playoffs

15. 9z – 44.7% to finish 13-16th; 14.6% to make playoffs

16. Imperial – 49.1% to finish 13-16th; 13.9% to make playoffs

It has been quite the run for NaVi despite their loss with back to back grand finals in recent weeks but CSDB.gg’s predictive model suggests there will be no let up for the Ukrainian esports organisation.

G2 will also be looking to build more momentum in preparation for Majors season with NiKo on a quest to finally get over the line this year to win his first major title. Hopefully Rio won’t have to see a repeat of his reaction in the semifinals at BLAST Premier Fall Final 2024 where he punched a hole in a table after losing out to Team Vitality in a key moment.

However, the hosts of Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024 may want to lockdown any nearby furniture and reinforce their desks if G2 are set for disappointment at the semifinals stage as predicted by the CSDB.gg SuperComputer.

A victory in Rio could be even more consequential for how the end of the year shapes up for the leading teams on the circuit. The Valve Global rankings have both teams close at the very top (NaVi at 1988 and G2 at 1953) meaning a win for either team could hand them a key advantage when it comes to who enters the Majors as top seed. 

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Back-to-back wins in T1 events for G2, should they prosper in Rio, would set the Berlin-based team on an incredible trajectory going into the winter months.

Meanwhile, Brazilian hopes for glory look slight according to the CSDB.gg SuperComputer with FURIA, the team co-owned by Neymar, having only been given a 20.9% chance of even making the playoffs. 

They are the leading contenders to make an impact for the home crowd but there are other teams flying the flag for Brazil with paiN and Imperial also set to give it their best to give local fans something to cheer on.

In terms of forecasted matchups of note, G2 and FaZe Clan could offer up a fascinating encounter in the quarterfinals should both teams qualify, with each organisation rated as having a strong chance of making the semis with little to separate them should they meet.

How was the CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer created?

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The CSDB.gg CS2 Tournament SuperComputer is a predictive model created using world ranking points, team quality ratings and performance trends. An element of randomness is also included in the model to avoid the best teams and players always winning, to reflect the fact that upsets can happen.

Every tournament is simulated 1,000 times with the results aggregated into a percentage rating of the chances teams or players have to achieve the predicted result.

Oddin.gg is proud to announce that it has secured a full 3-year sports betting license in Ohio, further strengthening its standing as the esports betting solutions provider with the most licenses in North America. With this latest addition, Oddin.gg now holds four US licenses—New Jersey, Colorado, West Virginia, and Ohio—and a total of five across North America, including Ontario, Canada.

The Ohio license is a strategic milestone, as the state is set to become one of the most active betting markets in the American Midwest. According to projections from the Ohio Legislative Service Commission, the state’s sports gaming market is expected to reach approximately $3.35 billion annually as it matures. By securing this license, Oddin.gg is well-positioned to support operators in tapping into this significant potential.

Obtaining the Ohio license also demonstrates Oddin.gg’s ability to meet the state’s comprehensive regulatory standards, which include arduous assessments of financial stability, operational integrity, and adherence to state laws. This achievement reinforces Oddin.gg’s reputation for compliance and reliability, enhancing its capability to deliver full-service esports betting solutions tailored to a growing market.

Ohio’s sports betting legislation imposes a 10% tax on sports gaming receipts, contributing to public education and initiatives supporting veterans in the state. Oddin.gg’s entry into this regulated environment reinforces its role as a leader in shaping the future of esports betting in the US while offering operators a pathway to engage with a new generation of bettors in a secure and exciting way.

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Vlastimil Venclík, CEO of Oddin.gg, shared his enthusiasm about the news: “Securing a license from the Ohio Casino Control Commission is a significant step in our North American journey. Ohio is poised to become one of the most dynamic betting markets in the US, and gaining this
approval aer meeting the state’s rigorous standards is a true reflection of our commitment to integrity and excellence both in Ohio and beyond. However, this license isn’t just about expanding our reach; it’s about ensuring our partners have access to market-leading esports betting solutions that fully align with all local regulatory requirements.”

He continued, “Ohio’s market is gearing up to be something special, and we’re excited to help operators tap into that potential. As esports betting continues to evolve, Oddin.gg is ready to provide the expertise, technology, and support to make sure our partners succeed.

Esports betting in the United States is a yet to be fully tapped, and with more regulatory progress the total market and opportunity in esports continues to grow.

It’s why at PandaScore, we recently acquired our first license in the lucrative American market, in the esports-friendly state of Colorado. The move is a strong signal of our ambition in the US, but it also sets out our methodology for solving the uncertainty problem that US esports betting currently suffers from.

Supplier licensing should lead the way

The unknowns about what markets and lines can be offered are a key piece of the puzzle in many jurisdictions. Uncertainty around the legislation means operators are tentative to jump in with both feet. At PandaScore, we’re helping operators navigate US esports betting regulation on a state-by-state basis, so they can make business led decisions in markets with right balance of stability and opportunity.

Except for a few states, esports betting regulation is relatively  new: there’s not a great deal of precedent to work from, and its quickly evolving nature means there’s likely more work to be done in the future. We plan to be at the forefront of making sure that esports betting works for the whole ecosystem: operators, suppliers, regulators and the betting public.

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The regulatory framework across the country may be shifting at different paces, but almost all states are going in one direction: expansion.

Esports suppliers have a duty to show operators the way and give them the tools, knowledge and expertise to make the right decision. We don’t believe in going all guns blazing, but entering markets with some certainty around esports in a considered fashion.

We can be more confident that those specific markets are built for esports, with Colorado being PandaScore’s first step for several reasons.

Why Colorado

When deciding which market to enter, we consulted heavily with our customers and whittled it down to states that had the right mix of commercial opportunity, solid regulatory environment and straightforwardness in licensing.

Since regulating esports, Colorado has had a friendly framework for esports. The catalogue for regular betting includes a wide range of esports titles based on approved games and tournaments by the publisher or regulator – which follows some similarities to how traditional sports betting is structured.

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The process itself was simple and clear, with clear terms and commercials that promote investment, entrepreneurship and innovation – all key ingredients for growing new markets and ambitious organisations to build new audiences.

Colorado is the natural next step in PandaScore’s service-minded, client-first approach. There’s already a generation of bettors who are seeking out esports betting products, esports suppliers need to be the source of knowledge and expertise that helps guide and amplify the esports ambitions of their clients.

Service-minded approach, client-led growth

We bring operators into the licensing conversation from the outset, exploring the licenses most valuable to them and then leveraging our lean, efficient operating model to get it done.

We’ve proven we’re serious about the US market, and that we can get a license efficiently, so if an operator desires a specific jurisdiction, we base our decisions on the revenue potential, give them a clear, no-spin picture of the market, and put in the hard work of licensing to provide our services in the US.

Player age verification as a mandatory service

A huge part of that no-spin picture is addressing the concern and risk around player age verification in esports. Compliance is paramount for suppliers and operators alike, so knowing the requirements from state to state is essential.

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PandaScore has been offering player age verification for years and is well established on this front thanks to years of servicing jurisdictions like Australia and Sweden. We already have an API that clients use for peace of mind, and are beefing it up as a standalone service intended to support regulators and governing bodies to ensure compliance, confidence and growth.

Suppliers need to lead from the front for US esports betting to succeed. It’s not just about having the best product – they need to be an expert on relevant regulation, genuinely serve the expansion interests of clients and be a truly safe pair of hands that actively supports and serves operators, bettors and regulators alike.

Author: Oliver Niner, Head of Sales at PandaScore.

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