A wild Week 3 slate of NFL games, which saw three double-digit comeback wins, will set the stage for an atypical set of odds in Week 4, according to analysts for the TheLines. The schedule features seven road favorites, equal to the number in Weeks 2 and 3 combined, and two double-digit favorites.
A consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet, SugarHouse, and BetMGM — place the Los Angeles Rams as a 12.5-point favorite against the New York Giants, while the Baltimore Ravens open the week as 13.5-point favorites over Washington. To put that into perspective, there has been only one double-digit favorite so far this season, and the Indianapolis Colts easily covered the 11.5-point spread on Sunday against the New York Jets.
Most unusual, though, is the Ravens are 13.5-point favorites on the road against Washington. That isn’t quite historic for a road favorite. But it is close. If bettors push the line over 15 points by Sunday, it would place the Ravens among the top 10 biggest road favorites in the NFL’s last 50 years, so it’s worth watching how the line moves this week.
Does this all mean that playing at home in a year with stadiums at reduced capacity is not quite the advantage as in typical years? Not particularly. Road teams are 7-6-1 straight up so far this week and 21-25-1 overall this season. Historically in the NFL, home teams typically win about 56% of the time, so there hasn’t been much deviation from the norm.
“What the Week 4 lines say is that the Ravens are really good, and Washington is struggling so far this year,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “But overall, it’s still too early to know if the home-road dynamic has been altered in any tangible way. Right now, a relatively small sample size suggests that perhaps not.”
The consensus point spreads for the Week 4 slate, as of Monday, Sept. 28:
- Denver Broncos (-3) at New York Jets; over/under 40
- Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers; over/under 51.5
- Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) at Washington Football Team; over/under N/A
- Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5); over/under 56
- Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Chicago Bears; over/under 44
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3); over/under 47.5
- Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5); over/under 44.5
- Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-4); over/under 53
- New Orleans (-4) at Detroit Lions; over/under 54.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5); over/under 47
- Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins; over/under 54.5
- New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5); over/under 48.5
- Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders; over/under 50.5
- New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7); over/under N/A
- Philadelphia at San Francisco 49ers (-6); over/under 43.5
- Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7); over/under 58
To access the updated futures lines for every NFL team, and for more analysis, visit TheLines.com/odds/super-bowl. To access Week 4 odds, visit www.thelines.com/nfl-week-4-lines-2020.
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