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TheLines.com: Home favorites rule Week 14 slate, but road teams faring well in 2021

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HISTORIC DIVISIONAL WEEKEND ON TAP FOR NFL PLAYOFFS Opening odds for NFL's Divisional Weekend show one the closest combined point spreads in the history of the playoffs, according to TheLines

 

The NFL’s Week 14 will feature a greater percentage of home favorites than any other week this season. But the NFL has not been particularly home friendly so far, according to TheLines.com, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.

Eleven of this week’s 14 games feature home favorites as of Monday, according to a consensus of that nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars, and PointsBet. The New Orleans Saints (-6) over the hapless New York Jets, the Dallas Cowboys (-5) over the Washington Football Team, and the Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) over the struggling Houston Texans are the only games on this week’s schedule that buck the home-heavy trend.

But 2021 has hardly been a schedule dominated by home teams. Through the season’s first 13 weeks, home teams are 81-108-1 against the spread for a winning percentage of 42.6% which is down from nearly 49% in 2020. This year’s home record against the spread is also well below the historic winning percentage, too. Home teams have gone 1,463-1,549-76 against the spread since the beginning of the 2010 season. In other words, home teams have covered 47.4% of all matchups during that span, which includes this year.

“The presumption might be that home favorites would have fared worse in 2020, when stadiums were largely empty, than in 2021. But that is not the case so far,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “Thirteen weeks of football is a relatively small sample, though, and a reversion to the mean would not be shocking. That might be something for bettors to consider with such a home-heavy slate this week.”

The consensus point spreads for Week 14 games, as of Monday, Dec. 6:

  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3); over/under 45
  • Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2); over/under 43
  • Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-10.5); over/under 44
  • Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5); over/under 52.5
  • New Orleans Saints (-6) at New York Jets; over/under 43.5
  • Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Washington Football Team; over/under 49
  • Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3); over/under 43.5
  • Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Houston Texans; over/under 43.5
  • Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-8); over/under 43.5
  • New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5); over/under 45.5
  • San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5); over/under 47.5
  • Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5); over/under 53
  • Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5); over/under 44.5
  • Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5); over/under 52

Compliance Updates

Gaming CEOs Optimistic on Industry Outlook, Report Evolving Industry Challenges

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Amidst an evolving economic landscape, gaming executives report a positive outlook on future industry business conditions while remaining satisfied with the current business environment, according to the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) Gaming Industry Outlook.

Nearly all gaming executives surveyed characterized the current business environment as good (44%) or satisfactory (50%), mirroring similar sentiment from Q3 2023. Meanwhile, executives are more optimistic about future conditions, with 32 percent of CEOs expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 20 percent in Q3 2023.

“Gaming’s record-setting growth over the last three years has set a new standard for industry success,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “However, as we enter a period of market normalization, continued investment and innovation in offering world-class, responsible entertainment experiences will be required to maintain industry momentum.”

Gaming Executive Panel

Gaming executives have become more positive in their views that overall balance sheet health will improve over the next 6 months (42% net positive), but they expect the pace of revenue growth (13% net negative) and new hiring (22% net negative) to slow. These expectations for decelerating growth have influenced expectations for increases in capital investment and gaming units in operation, with smaller net positive sentiments than before.

  • In contrast to past Outlooks, gaming equipment suppliers are slightly pessimistic about the sale of gaming units for replacement use and new or expansion use (both 13% net negative). However, they remain optimistic about the pace of capital investment (38% net positive).
  • Half of operator CEOs expect capital investments in hotels over the next year to be higher than normal, and compared to last fall, more also expect higher than normal levels of capital investment in meetings and conventions and table games (28%). Meanwhile, 44 percent of CEOs expect increases in food and beverage investment, down from 67 percent in Q3 2023.

These expectations are also informed by evolving macroeconomic challenges. Executives report that inflationary or interest rate concerns continue to be a major factor limiting operations (28%), but these have been overtaken by geo-political risk (34%) and uncertainty of the economic environment (34%) as the biggest limiting factors in the most recent Gaming Executive Panel.

Current Conditions Index
The Current Conditions Index of 102.8 for Q1 indicates solid annualized real economic growth in the industry of 2.8%. This includes gaming revenue, employment and employee wages and salaries. Notably, the Current Conditions Index shows gaming expanding faster than the overall U.S. economy which last week reported 1.6 percent GDP growth in Q1 2024.

Future Conditions Index

The Future Conditions Index stands at 102.2, indicating annualized industry economic activity, after controlling for underlying inflation, is expected to moderately increase over the next six months. This outlook reflects Oxford Economics’ forecast that the U.S. economy will slow during 2024 but avoid recession. Despite a projected economic slowdown, consumer survey results continue to indicate that more than one-third of adults expect to visit a casino during the next 12 months, consistent with prior quarter results.

About the Outlook

The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook is prepared biannually by Oxford Economics. It provides a timely measure of recent industry growth and future expectations. The Q1 2024 survey was conducted between March 28 – April 10, 2024. A total of 32 executives responded, including executives at the major international and domestic gaming companies, tribal gaming operators, single-unit casino operators, major gaming equipment suppliers, and major iGaming and/or sports betting operators.

 

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Compliance Updates

Arizona Department of Gaming Releases February Sports Betting Figures

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PHOENIX – Bettors in Arizona wagered approximately $637.5 million on sports in February of 2024, according to a new report by the Arizona Department of Gaming. This represents an approximate 4.6% increase when compared to February of 2023.

The state collected approximately $2.8 million in privilege fees in the month. You can view the full February report on the ADG website: LINK.

 

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Lottery

New Hampshire Lottery Joins Mega Money Jackpots

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Follows multi-state eInstant record jackpot award of $5.8 million

Instant Win Gaming (IWG), a leading supplier of eInstant games to NASPL and WLA-member lotteries, congratulates the New Hampshire Lottery on joining the Company’s multi-state eInstant progressive, Mega Money Jackpots.

The New Hampshire Lottery launched Jackpot Spectacular, its first game in the Mega Money Jackpots linked progressive pool, for players in the Granite State on April 24th. New Hampshire joins Pennsylvania and Virginia in offering Mega Money Jackpots linked games.

Additionally, IWG congratulates the Virginia Lottery along with its Mega Money Jackpots player who won a record-setting $5.8 million prize. The win sets another new U.S. iLottery record for the largest eInstant prize.

Mega Money Jackpots launched in July 2023, and over the past nine months the game has created eight millionaires. Since launch, more than 240 players across the participating lotteries have won Mega and Minor jackpots totaling more than $20 million.

The amount and frequency of these prizes showcases the excitement of IWG’s Mega Money Jackpots. To achieve this, select eInstants from participating lotteries each contribute a small percentage of the sales to fund the two progressive prize tiers, with IWG administering the settlement of jackpot prize monies on a turnkey basis.

The multi-state eInstant progressive jackpot is powered by IWG’s InstantJackpots. Since all functionality is contained within IWG’s InstantRGS (remote game server), no development support is required by a lottery’s iLottery platform provider. Additionally, new lotteries can join the system regardless of their iLottery platform provider.

Charlie McIntyre, Executive Director at New Hampshire Lottery, said: “Our industry has a proud track record of collaborating across state lotteries. We’re excited to join Mega Money Jackpots and to bring the excitement of it outsized prizes to our players. We know that our contribution will further enhance the game for everyone involved, and we look forward to creating some new millionaires here in New Hampshire.”

Rhydian Fisher, CEO at IWG, said: “Kudos to the team at New Hampshire Lottery. By joining Mega Money Jackpots, collectively we can award even more million dollar prizes to lottery players. Not only is the game frequently creating new millionaires, but it has also been a leading catalyst for new player signups. Fingers crossed that some new millionaires will be created in New Hampshire very soon.”

 

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