The performance of an NFL team after a bye week is often debated in betting circles, especially those looking for value. The Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers all sat out in Week 6, which could be a factor in the NFL’s Week 7 schedule in certain circumstances, according to TheLines, which tracks odds in U.S. regulated sports betting markets.
The 49ers (-4), Saints (-3.5), and Falcons (-2) are all favorites in their Week 7 games, according to a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including BetAmerica, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, SugarHouse, and Unibet. Meanwhile, the struggling Jets are a 7-point road underdog in their matchup with the New England Patriots.
Overall, NFL teams coming off bye weeks are 202-165-1 against the spread since 2011, according to data from Teamrankings.com. But not all bye weeks are equal. Road favorites coming off a bye, which is limited to the Saints and Falcons in Week 7, are 65% against the spread in recent years.
Individual coaches have performed well, too. Bill Belichick is 13-9 after the bye week, and Andy Reid is 15-7, but both coaches have been consistent winners regardless of schedule. Meanwhile, the Jets are just 2-8 against the spread after bye weeks since 2011, the worst record of any NFL team over that span.
“There is rarely a no-brainer when it comes to betting, and bye weeks hardly provide certainty,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “Regardless, bye weeks are worth factoring in under certain circumstances.”
The consensus point spreads for Week 7 games, as of Monday, Oct. 18:
- Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-4.5); over/under 43
- Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-9.5); over/under 49
- Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans; over/under 56.5
- Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Miami Dolphins; over/under 47.5
- New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7); over/under 42.5
- Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants; over/under 44
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5); over/under 47.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3); over/under 48.5
- Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15.5); over/under 50
- Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17); over/under 47.5
- Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5); over/under 48.5
- Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4); over/under 45
- New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks; over/under 444
To access the updated futures lines for every NFL team, and for more analysis, visit TheLines.com/odds/super-bowl. To access Week 7 odds, visit www.thelines.com/nfl-week-7-odds-2021/.
