Oddsmakers are offering a hefty serving of home cooking for the NFL’s pre-Thanksgiving schedules. But that doesn’t mean that home teams are shoe-in this week, according to TheLines.com, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.
According to a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet, PlaySugarHouse, and BetMGM — Week 11’s slate of games features 10 home favorites as of Monday morning. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 10.5-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Kansas City Chiefs, who are favored by 7 points over the Las Vegas Raiders, are hitting the road this week as favorites.
Home favorites have not fared particularly well, though, going 41-54 against the spread this season, winning 43% of the time. But in 2019, home favorites were 65-94-6 against the spread, covering about 41% of all games. If that year-over-year consistency is surprising, consider that home teams are 76-67-1 overall so far — a higher rate than in 2019, when home teams went 136-124-1.
“It seems that playing at home is still an advantage, even with stadiums at far less than capacity,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “In fact, despite some early predictions to the contrary it does not appear that there has been any significant deviation from typical home-road splits.”
The consensus point spreads for Week 10 games, as of Tuesday, Nov. 10:
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5); over/under 57.5
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-7); over/under N/A
- Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team (-1); over/under 46.5
- Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2.5); over/under N/A
- New England Patriots at Houston Texans (-2.5); over/under 47.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3); over/under 45
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars; over/under 46
- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5); over/under 47
- Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Denver Broncos; over/under 45
- New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5); over/under 47.5
- Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5); over/under N/A
- Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5); over/under 51.5
- Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Las Vegas Raiders; over/under 56
- Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5); over/under 48.5
To access the updated futures lines for every NFL team, and for more analysis, visit TheLines.com/odds/super-bowl. To access Week 11 odds, visit www.thelines.com/nfl-week-11-lines-2020.
