Press Releases
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
On November 6, the iGaming industry in Mexico is preparing for a key event in which the benefits and challenges that regulation has brought to the Mexican market will be discussed. Under the title “Benefits of Regulation in the Mexican Market”, this panel will offer an in-depth look at the impact of regulation on transparency, competition and consumer protection, critical issues in the new digital era of iGaming.
The event, moderated by Geraldine Alexandra García Torres, Media Manager of Digital Gaming News, will feature the participation of recognized figures in the sector such as Daniel Magariños, representative of BMM Testlabs, and Hermilo Peregrina Cabrera of Prometeo IT Solutions. Both panelists will contribute their extensive knowledge and experience in regulation and certification in the Mexican market, and will analyze with the public the challenges and opportunities that companies face in an increasingly competitive and regulated context.
BMM Testlabs, who will participate as a Gold Sponsor, underlines with its sponsorship the importance of regulation to strengthen the iGaming sector in Mexico and demonstrates its commitment to progress and transparency in the Mexican market. For its part, Kushki joins as a Silver Sponsor, promoting the dialogue and analysis necessary for the industry.
Daniel Magariños, from BMM Testlabs, expressed his enthusiasm for participating in this digital webinar: “It has been a pleasure to be able to share our comments as a Laboratory on a market like the Mexican one and exchange opinions with a reference like Hermilo and the company Prometeo IT Solutions, with its excellent track record in this market. A relaxed talk with a lot of learning that I hope will be interesting for the attendees.”
For his part, Hermilo Peregrina, from Prometeo IT Solutions, highlighted the relevance of these spaces for dialogue: “Thank you to Conferencias iGaming for the invitation to participate in this panel. Thanks to Geraldine for coordinating us, and it was a pleasure to share ideas and opinions with my friend Daniel from BMM Testlabs, who has extensive experience in international regulations and certifications.”
Sponsor Support
The panel has the support of important sponsors who recognize the relevance of regulation in the development of the iGaming market in Mexico. Among them, BMM Testlabs as Gold Sponsor, and Kushki as Silver Sponsor.
Event Details:
Date: November 6
Time: 10:00 a.m. (Mexico)
Registration: Register here
Don’t miss the opportunity to be part of this essential conversation for the future of the industry. Secure your place and access a key analysis on the dynamic iGaming market in Mexico!
Latest News
Paige Spiranac Expands SportsGrid’s Content Portfolio with Exclusive Sports and Casino-Themed Shows
SportsGrid, the leading free ad supported television network in the sports genre, proudly announces a multi-year partnership with former professional golfer and social media’s most followed golf personality and social media sensation Paige Spiranac. Under this agreement, Spiranac will lead exclusive original casino-themed programming, marking a significant expansion in SportsGrid’s content offerings.
As one of the most recognizable influencers in the world of sports and entertainment, Spiranac brings her signature charisma, deep sports knowledge, and passion for gaming to the new role. She will team with Emmy Award-Winning Executive Producer and EVP of Programming and Development, Scott Lasky, and headline a series of shows featuring engaging sports and casino content, offering fans an unparalleled mix of strategy, insight, and entertainment.
“We are thrilled to welcome Paige Spiranac to the SportsGrid family,” said Jeremy Stein Co-Founder and CEO of SportsGrid. “Her dynamic personality, love for gaming, and connection with sports fans perfectly align with our mission to deliver unique and captivating content. Paige’s presence in our casino programming is a game-changer, and we look forward to seeing her elevate our viewers’ experience as we pioneer this new category.”
The programming will be available across SportsGrid’s platforms, providing fans with 24/7 access to engaging and informative content that blends entertainment with Spiranac’s signature charm and insight.
“I’m thrilled to join SportsGrid and dive into the world of sports gaming with a network that’s truly pushing boundaries in sports and casino entertainment,” said Spiranac. “Creating unique, interactive content for fans who share my passion for gaming is something I’m incredibly excited about. Together with SportsGrid, I look forward to bringing a fresh perspective and delivering the fun, engaging experiences that fans expect and deserve.”
The partnership further solidifies SportsGrid’s position as the leading media platform in the sports wagering and gaming space. With the addition of Spiranac’s unique style and undeniable star power, SportsGrid continues to innovate and set new standards of what’s possible in digital sports entertainment.
SOFTSWISS, a global tech company with over 15 years of experience in iGaming, introduces a new Geo-Distributed Redirect feature of Affilka by SOFTSWISS that helps operators improve engagement and conversion rates by reducing user redirect times.
The Geo-Distributed Redirect feature intelligently routes users to destination landing pages via regional clusters closest to their location. This geo-optimised infrastructure minimises redirect times, increasing successful website visits from referral links. The feature is designed for seamless scalability across multiple regions and enhances performance globally, wherever needed.
With the new feature, Affilka by SOFTSWISS reduced redirect duration by 2.5 to 5 times. At one of the regions, for example, extensive simulated tests showed a decrease in redirect times for users from 1.5 seconds to 300-500 milliseconds – this is one of the fastest responses available in the market. As a result, the feature implementation leads to a 3.5% to 7% growth in users successfully reaching casino sites. This increase in site traffic, in turn, directly contributes to more registrations and deposits.
The Geo-Distributed Redirect feature boosts conversions, accelerates redirects, enhances fault tolerance and high availability, and improves service reliability for users globally. Even during unexpected challenges, the system dynamically reroutes traffic to alternative resources, ensuring a seamless experience.
Gleb Bichan, Product Lead at Affilka by SOFTSWISS, shares his excitement: “With the launch of our Geo-Distributed Redirect feature, we are addressing the needs of clients targeting users worldwide. By reducing redirection times and increasing reliability, we enable our partners to deliver a superior user experience that drives traffic delivery and conversions. This feature is a significant improvement for customers looking to expand their global reach.”
Along with affiliate marketing, SEO website advancement helps operators promote their projects. Considering this, SOFTSWISS issued a comprehensive Casino SEO Audit: The Ultimate Guide, providing tips for increasing any iGaming project’s visibility.
The SOFTSWISS team looks forward to sharing the details of the Geo-Distributed Redirect feature and other product updates at the upcoming SiGMA Europe Expo. Current and potential partners can book a meeting with company representatives at stand 2145 through the contact form.
About SOFTSWISS
SOFTSWISS is an international technology company with over 15 years of experience in developing innovative solutions for the iGaming industry. SOFTSWISS holds a number of gaming licences and provides comprehensive software for managing iGaming projects. The company’s product portfolio includes the Online Casino Platform, the Game Aggregator with over 23,500 casino games, the Affilka Affiliate platform, the Sportsbook Software and the Jackpot Aggregator. In 2013, SOFTSWISS revolutionised the industry by introducing the world’s first Bitcoin-optimised online casino solution. The expert team, based in Malta, Poland, and Georgia, counts over 2,000 employees.
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