Press Releases
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
WA. Technology, the global iGaming solutions provider, has launched its Pick’Em player props product globally, centred on countries across Asia-Pacific, Africa and LatAm, with a particular focus on Brazil.
The newly released tool is designed to put the player at the centre of the wagering experience to bridge the gap between fans and sports.
With increased demand from casual fans for player-focused betting experiences, Pick’Em combines sports betting with fantasy gaming, focusing fully on individual player performance.
Offering between two and six markets across a variety of sports, the numerous benefits for operators include higher margins gained through users combining multiple players from different sports. With the differential from traditional sports betting, operators have the chance to gain an edge over competitors by using the tool.
There is also the opportunity for increased marketing through the creation of engaging and memorable campaigns related to Pick’Em.
Bettors can access a wealth of sports and betting markets, such as goals and assists in football, and then predict whether each player will be over or under their selected line in the specified market.
There are two ways users can opt to play – ‘Power Play’, where every selection must win, or ‘Flex Play’, where it will be settled as a winner even if one selection loses. Users can win up to 25 times their stake with accurate choices.
Users can even combine player picks from multiple sports in a single entry, which creates a unique cross-sport experience that brings them closer to their favourite stars.
As fan behavior shifts toward tracking individual players and athletes over teams, Pick’Em offers an intuitive and rewarding way for users to engage with the sports they love.
Pick’Em also addresses the key challenge in the sports betting world of the learning curve for new users and the lack of personalised, player-focused options. Unlike traditional betting formats that rely on team outcomes and complex odds, Pick’Em delivers a streamlined experience where fans simply predict whether individual players will go over or under specific stat lines.
The simplicity of Pick’Em means there are no confusing odds, instead, there are clear player predictions, which keeps it interesting, fun, and rewarding for both casual fans and more experienced bettors compared with traditional sports betting.
By combining a simple user interface with the excitement of predicting player outcomes, Pick’Em creates a fun, engaging, and rewarding experience that keeps users coming back for more.
Commenting on the launch, Will Booth, Product Owner at WA. Technology said: “With the global sports and fantasy sports industry projected to reach $230 billion by 2030. Rapid mobile adoption across Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Africa is driving demand for simple, engaging, and player-focused betting tools like Pick’Em.
“Generations of adults have been brought up playing more fantasy-led sports games, and WA. Technology’s newest launch makes sports betting appear more relatable without the overwhelming feeling that newer gamblers often get.
“Pick’Em makes sports more exciting and personal for bettors, and opens up the opportunity for casual fans to feel more involved. Demand shows that fans today care more about player performance than ever before. Pick’Em taps directly into that passion, turning it into an easy, thrilling game that anyone can play.”
B2B gaming supplier Push Gaming has officially entered the United States, launching its highly anticipated content in Michigan through a landmark exclusive collaboration with leading operator BetMGM.
The milestone debut marks a significant step in Push Gaming’s global growth strategy, bringing its distinctive, player-first approach to one of North America’s most dynamic iGaming jurisdictions.
BetMGM players in Michigan can soon enjoy a selection of launch titles from Push Gaming, including the highly anticipated Big Bamboo and the action-packed 10 Flaming Bisons. The latter made a strong debut in December 2024 and quickly became a fan favourite across the network.
Additionally, Push Gaming will launch a number of exclusive titles for BetMGM, incorporating MGM Resorts International’s IP, such as MGM Grand Gamble, MGM Emerald Nights and Bellagio Diamonds, alongside Push Gaming’s portfolio of popular titles, ensuring a steady stream of fresh, localised content.
The market entry signals the beginning of Push Gaming’s US journey, with its content exclusively available on BetMGM, uniting two forward-thinking brands that share a deep focus on entertainment, innovation and long-term player engagement.
Widely recognised as a key driver of US iGaming growth, Michigan recorded over $218.5 million in gross internet gaming revenue in March 2025, according to the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB). With strong smartphone adoption, a loyal player base, and a commitment to innovation, the state provides the ideal launchpad for Push Gaming’s long-term ambitions in the country.
The addition of Push Gaming’s proven and popular titles will strengthen an already flourishing market and offer players fresh and compelling gaming experiences.
Push Gaming’s launch in Michigan directly builds on the successful collaboration established with BetMGM in Ontario. Working as a precursor, it demonstrates the robust nature of the relationship across North American markets.
Andy Bentley, COO at Push Gaming, said: “We’re incredibly excited to be live in the US, and Michigan is the perfect place to start. It’s a hugely important and vibrant market, and we’re proud to launch exclusively with BetMGM, one of the region’s most respected and established operators.”
“This launch is more than just a milestone. It’s a strategic step towards establishing Push Gaming as a market leader in North America. By building on our strong collaboration with BetMGM and delivering standout content, we’re confident we can grow a loyal and engaged player base in the US.”
Oliver Bartlett, Vice President of Gaming Product & Content at BetMGM, added: “A pillar of our content strategy is partnering with exceptional game suppliers like Push Gaming, who have a reputation for high-quality games that have proven to be a hit with players.
“We take pride in being the first operator to bring Push Gaming’s content to the United States, especially in a leading iGaming market like Michigan.”
As BetMGM continues to expand into new markets and introduce new features, responsible gaming remains a key focus. The major brand is continually evolving its commitment to providing resources that help customers play responsibly, including GameSense, an industry-leading programme developed and licensed to MGM Resorts by the British Columbia Lottery Corporation.
Through the integration within BetMGM’s mobile and desktop platforms, customers can receive the same GameSense experience they have grown to rely on at MGM Resorts properties nationwide. This complements BetMGM’s existing responsible gambling tools, which provide customers with an entertaining and safe digital experience.
Win Systems, a leading provider of technology for the gaming and entertainment industry, successfully concluded its exclusive showroom event on May 28 and 29 at its offices in Lima, Peru. Over two engaging days, local operators and strategic partners had the opportunity to experience the company’s latest innovations first-hand, with special attention given to the new Gold Club Colors, an innovative evolution of its renowned electronic roulette.
The experience was highly praised by attendees, who interacted directly with the Gold Club Colors and witnessed its advanced aesthetic and functional customization features. This version allows key components such as LED lighting, armrests, cilinder, and game layout to be tailored to the visual identity of each casino, enhancing both the venue’s atmosphere and the overall player experience. Also drawing strong interest was the dynamic paytable, which adjusts rewards based on the flow of each game session.
“This event was truly special for us. Beyond showcasing our products, we wanted to create a space to connect, share ideas, and listen to the local market’s needs firsthand. The response was fantastic and encourages us to continue strengthening our presence in Peru,” said Galy Olazo, Country Manager for Win Systems in Peru.
The showroom not only demonstrated one of the most advanced electronic roulettes on the market in action but also reaffirmed Win Systems’ commitment to ongoing innovation and close collaboration with its clients and strategic partners.
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