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Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
21VIRAL, a leading games aggregator for the Central and Latin American market, has strengthened its expansion by signing an agreement with platform provider Virtualsoft
21VIRAL, a leading games aggregator for the Central and Latin American market, today announced a strategic agreement with prominent platform provider Virtualsoft, significantly strengthening its expansion across the region.
This collaboration will integrate 21VIRAL’s extensive portfolio of games into Virtualsoft’s platform, providing enhanced content options for operators across key Central and Latin American nations. Virtualsoft is a key supplier with a strong presence in markets including Ecuador and Peru, delivering innovative gaming solutions to a diverse range of operators.
Christoph Härtel, CEO of 21VIRAL, commented: “Partnering with Virtualsoft is a pivotal moment for 21VIRAL as we deepen our engagement with one of the world’s most rapidly advancing online gaming markets. Virtualsoft underpins numerous leading brands in the region, and integrating our GameConnector solution will allow swift access to their operational brands. We look forward to working closely with Virtualsoft’s talented team to deliver innovative and revenue driving gaming experiences.”
Alejandro Velez, General Manager at Virtualsoft, stated: “21VIRAL has a strong reputation for seamless integrations and profound expertise in the Latin American gaming market, making them an ideal partner for us. Together, we are streamlining operations and elevating the gaming experience for players, aiming to set new benchmarks for the industry.”
The Division I Council introduced a proposal that, if adopted in October, would change sports betting rules to permit student-athletes and staff members to bet on professional sports and refocus the Association’s enforcement efforts on college sports betting and behaviors that directly impact game integrity. If adopted, the change will be implemented only if Divisions II and III also vote to allow betting on pro sports.
The council’s introduction of the proposal, which comes after a directive from the Division I Board of Directors in April that the council adopt changes to sports betting rules, is not an endorsement of sports betting behaviors, especially for college athletes. The NCAA’s prohibition against betting on college sports would remain in place, as would the prohibitions against sharing information about college events with bettors. The NCAA also would continue to maintain its prohibition for NCAA championships against advertising and sponsorships associated with betting.
“NCAA rules prohibiting sports betting at all levels were written and adopted at a time when sports gambling was largely illegal nationwide,” said Josh Whitman, athletics director at Illinois and chair of the council. “As betting on sports has become more widely accepted across the country, Division I members have determined that further discussion of these sports betting rules is warranted, particularly as it relates to the potential distinctions between betting on professional versus collegiate sports. Throughout our discussions, the council has remained focused on student-athlete wellness and educating student-athletes about the risks and potentially harmful impacts of betting.”
Current NCAA rules do not allow student-athletes or institutional staff to engage in sports betting at any level (professional, college or amateur) for any sports that have NCAA championships, and NCAA members have continually maintained that any betting by a student-athlete on his or her own team or own sport in college should continue to result in a permanent loss of any remaining collegiate eligibility. However, in 2023, Division I changed the reinstatement guidelines for student-athletes who participate in sports betting on professional sports to focus on harm reduction for problematic betting behaviors.
“Deregulating professional sports betting may provide schools an additional opportunity to implement harm-reduction strategies, which can be more effective and have long-term benefits not seen with abstinence-only approaches. Harm-reduction strategies include education, stigma reduction and acknowledging actual behaviors,” said Dr. Deena Casiero, NCAA chief medical officer. “By meeting student-athletes where they are, schools may be more effective at preventing, identifying and supporting student-athletes with problematic gambling behaviors. Regardless of the change, schools are encouraged to use the many sports betting resources already available.”
The recently released Harm Reduction Considerations for Gambling & Sports Betting in Collegiate Sports references available sports betting resources, including the NCAA Mental Health Best Practices. Additionally, more than 100,000 student-athletes, coaches and administrators have been reached through the NCAA’s education efforts with EPIC Global Solutions, and the NCAA has launched an e-learning module to educate student-athletes on problem gambling harms and the integrity risks associated with sports betting.
Several sports betting-related violations by staff members at NCAA schools have been resolved through the infractions process in recent years, and the enforcement staff is working on issuing Notices of Allegations in several ongoing cases that involve allegations of betting on professional and college sports by student-athletes and/or athletics department staff members at a handful of NCAA schools.
The proposed rule change would not be retroactive. If it is adopted, it would apply only to sports betting activities that occur after the effective date of the proposal.
“The enforcement staff’s sports betting-related caseload has significantly increased in recent years, and our staff — including our new sports betting integrity unit — has been effective in detecting and pursuing violations,” said Jon Duncan, NCAA vice president of enforcement.
The Association prioritizes competition integrity, which is vital to college sports. The NCAA uses a layered strategy to respond responsibly to the rise in sports betting across the United States by monitoring over 22,000 contests per year, advocating for limits on prop bets that pose heightened risks, reducing the potential for student-athlete abuse by aggrieved bettors, and creating greater transparency to assist with the timely investigation and resolution of integrity-related issues.
This layered approach includes the most recent agreement extension with Genius Sports to establish unprecedented betting restrictions on high-risk proposition bets. Sportsbooks licensing NCAA championship data must cooperate fully with NCAA investigations, including providing access to account data, financial history and geolocation records. This will allow the NCAA to work with the sportsbooks to gather detailed account information when harassers are identified to prevent repeat offenders from continuing to place bets across platforms, increasing safeguards to protect student-athlete mental health and well-being.
Latest News
Optimove and EveryMatrix Launch Real-Time Integration to Power Smarter Marketing for iGaming Operators
Optimove, the leader in Positionless Marketing, has announced a new integration with iGaming technology provider EveryMatrix.
EveryMatrix delivers modular and turnkey iGaming software, solutions, content and services across casino, sports betting, payments, and affiliate management to global tier-1 operators as well as newer brands. The integration enables shared operators to activate real-time marketing campaigns based on player behavior.
The collaboration introduces a custom integration allowing joint clients to stream real-time event data from EveryMatrix directly into Optimove. As part of Optimove’s platform, the integration empowers any marketer to launch personalized campaigns in real time, without dependency on technical teams. The result is faster execution, increased engagement, and higher player lifetime value.
“We are confident that with EveryMatrix’s powerful platform solutions, combined with our real-time capabilities, operators can realize a new level of speed and precision in marketing. This reflects the power of Positionless Marketing in action,” said Motti Colman, VP Revenue, Gaming at Optimove. “We’re giving operators the tools to act instantly on player behavior without waiting on analysts, engineers, or manual processes. It’s all about speed, personalization, and removing the bottlenecks that hold marketing teams back,” he concluded.
With the integration now live, operators can leverage Optimove’s real-time capabilities to trigger automated campaigns based on deposits, withdrawals, game behavior, and more. This helps deliver contextually relevant experiences at the exact moment players are most likely to engage.
Immediate marketing benefits iGaming operators can realize include:
- Welcome offers following a first deposit
- Instant reactivation messages after session abandonment
- Real-time loyalty rewards based on gameplay milestones
“This integration adds tremendous value for our operator partners,” said Kevin Furlong, Group CPO, EveryMatrix. “Combining our robust gaming infrastructure with Optimove’s Positionless Marketing platform with its real-time marketing engine allows our clients to deliver deeply personalized player experiences, when they matter most.”
The launch of real-time with EveryMatrix reflects the growing demand for agility and responsiveness in iGaming marketing. It also underscores the strength of the Optimove-EveryMatrix partnership and their shared commitment to helping operators deliver smarter, more dynamic campaigns.
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