Press Releases
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
Internet Vikings, a licensed in-state hosting provider for the U.S. iGaming and online sports betting industry, is announcing that it’s supporting Plannatech, a large B2B Provider, now stepping into the B2C space, in its expansion within the United States through an agreement to provide VMware cloud hosting solutions in Arizona.
Plannatech, leveraging the well-established Betcris brand from the America’s sports betting industry, has selected Internet Vikings for its structured setup processes, stable hosting environment, and technical expertise. This agreement ensures that the B2C iGaming and sportsbook operator benefits from a highly secure and reliable infrastructure, with Internet Vikings’ responsive support playing a crucial role in maintaining smooth operations.
“This is our 2nd state with Internet Vikings, who has been an absolute pleasure working with in providing the solid hosting infrastructure we need as we now expand into Arizona this time as the Operator,” said Adam Bjorn, CEO at Plannatech.
“We value our partnership with Plannatech and extending our VMware cloud hosting solutions to Arizona was the perfect next step as they bring new strategic offerings to the U.S. market,” said Rickard Vikström, CEO and Founder of Internet Vikings.
The Arizona sports betting market has seen impressive growth rates, with total handle reaching $791.2M in October 2024. While several operators have struggled to gain traction, Plannatech, utilizing the Betcris brand, is taking a strategic approach and leveraging its extensive experience in competitive markets. By choosing Internet Vikings as their hosting partner, Plannatech ensures a strong, compliant, and resilient digital presence as they expand their U.S. operations.
Paysecure is strengthening its presence across Latin America, addressing the region’s complex payment landscape with advanced payment orchestration solutions. As part of this strategic plan, Paysecure will showcase its cutting-edge platform at SIGMA Americas, taking place April 7-10, at booth N115.
Expanding into new LATAM markets presents businesses with significant challenges, including navigating diverse local payment methods, multi-currency processing, managing multiple Payment Service Providers (PSPs), or ensuring compliance with varying regulations and reducing fraud (Brazil experiences a chargeback rate of approximately 3.48%, while Mexico’s rate stands at about 2.81%).
Already operational in key LATAM markets such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica and more, Paysecure is poised to address these payment barriers by offering a single, streamlined API integration and a fully customizable dashboard that allow merchants to gain access to advanced capabilities including:
- Smart transaction routing – The company optimizes payment flows, managing to achieve up to a 15% decrease in payment processing costs by finding the lowest-cost routing options through dynamic selection.
- Comprehensive merchant controls: Paysecure’s intelligent engine allows transaction limits settings, applies cascading logic, and enables 10+ types of real-time reports that analyze trends and customer behavior.
- Dynamic fraud prevention: Its User Trust Score system and adaptive fraud detection tailored to each market ensure an over 10% decrease in fraud-related losses.
- Global payment network: With access to 500+ PSPs and acquirers, Paysecure enables businesses to offer customers their preferred payment methods in any country or currency.
In addition, the company has been shortlisted for ‘Best Online Payments Service 2025’ at the SIGMA Americas Awards Ceremony. The company will also exhibit at the event and attendees can visit Paysecure’s booth (N115) to explore how its solutions can enhance payment security and efficiency in the LATAM market.
The National Football League and WePlay Studios are teaming up to launch NFL Offsides, a first-of-its-kind weekly game show where NFL players, Legends, and well-known gaming creators compete in high-energy, video game-inspired challenges. Packed with larger-than-life personalities in a first-of-a-kind format, this is where content meets the gridiron in the most unexpected ways. NFL Offsides will debut on April 15, 2025, at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT and stream live on Tuesdays during the 2025 offseason on the NFL’s official YouTube channel, with co-streams on featured creators’ channels.
The series will be hosted by Cameron Dicker, nicknamed “Dicker the Kicker,” the Los Angeles Chargers Placekicker and the first NFL player born in Hong Kong, and popular streamer, Ovilee May. She is known for her prominent hosting for esports teams, major game publishers, and professional sports league productions. The premiere will feature NFL player, Daiyan Henley of the Los Angeles Chargers and Todd Gurley, NFL Legend and 2017 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, teaming up with top gaming creators Xaryu and Pikaboo for an exciting episode inspired by classic “Brawl” games.
“NFL Offsides promises to deliver a dynamic mix of sports and gaming content that will strengthen our connection to Gen-Z fan communities,” said Ed Kiang, vice president of video gaming at the NFL. “We’re excited to partner with WePlay Studios to bring this game show to life with NFL players and Legends alongside top gaming creators.”
Each episode of NFL Offsides will be divided into three segments, with unique opportunities for viewers to engage with the talent throughout the show:
- Physical Challenge: A real-life recreation of video game-inspired sets and challenges that will test participants’ physical and strategic skills.
- Mystery Segment: An unpredictable twist where participants could face puzzles, quizzes, or surprise challenges led by the production team or their community in chat.
- Gaming Showdown: The ultimate test of reflexes and teamwork as participants go head-to-head in a leading video game title, pushing their competitive skills to the limit.
The show will be produced by WePlay Studios, a content production team specializing in creating entertainment shows and gaming formats worldwide.
“Sports and video games are united by passion. Inspired by iconic ‘90s game shows, we wanted to bring that nostalgic energy into a fresh format for today’s generation,” said Maksym Bilonogov, chief visionary officer and executive producer at WePlay Studios. “After a decade of refining audience engagement, we’re applying that expertise to NFL Offsides. Partnering with the biggest sports league in America, the NFL is an incredible opportunity.”
Future episodes will feature NFL players, Legends, and top gaming creators, including Terrell Owens, Jeffery Simmons, the Botez sisters, MMG, Repullze, Esfand, and more.
This new series is part of the broader NFL strategy aiming to attract the next generation of fans.
NexTide Media, a creator-first media agency and ad tech solutions partner of WePlay Studios, is driving brand integrations for NFL Offsides – connecting advertisers with this one-of-a-kind gaming-meets-sports experience.
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