After a hotly-contested campaign for the 2020 election, and a see-sawing betting market to match, Cloudbet customers are already sowing some seeds for the leading candidates in 2024
* Kamala Harris is firming up as favourite, down to 4.61, ahead of President Biden at 5.06
* Before the storming of the Capitol, Donald Trump was 34.0 to win in 2024. Today? he’s down to 8.0
* Mike Pence, on the other hand, is drifting out to 12.0 from 9.0
With Donald Trump barely out of the White House and Joe Biden ensconced as the 46th President, you’d think it would be time for the betting public to draw breath and have a break from all things political. But not a bit of it… leading crypto betting operator Cloudbet has already seen plenty of action in its 2024 markets.
Setting the Scene
The 2020 US Presidential election was the biggest betting single event in history. $1.8 billion was wagered on Trump v Biden in the Betfair Exchange alone.
Joe Biden was the odds-on favourite – however, for leading crypto betting operator Cloudbet, 80% of the money taken on the US election had been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident across other books as well – with many on the record that a huge proportion of money continued to roll in for Trump and people continued to distrust polling data.
Regardless, Biden and the Democrats won – with a clear 306-versus-232 Electoral College majority, and leading the popular vote tally by a whopping 7.06 million votes. As Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ultimately put it, “this election actually was not unusually close.”
So, this time you’d expect Trump backers to be a tad more circumspect? Well.. up to a point, yes. If you’d looked at the markets you’d have seen Donald J Snr a lowly 33/1 (34.0 in decimals) for 2024. And then came the Capitol riots.. and even since then, the MAGA army have been backing their overlord, down into 8/1 (9.0) for today, after he vaguely promised “”we will be back – in some form” during his farewell salvo.
The Trump Dynasty
While we all wait to see if Trump’s second impeachment is more successful in Congress than the first, the Trump family is still seeing some movement in the markets. Ivanka is the most popular Trump, currently priced at at 25/1 (26.0 in decimals). While Trump’s namesake and eldest son Don Jnr can be backed at 50/1 (51.0). And poor Eric? The second son is a sibling sideshow and rank outsider at 108, even drifting over the past week from 100/1.
Cruzing for Another Bruising
Ted Cruz made his bid before the Capitol riots to pick up the Trump MAGA mantle. But it’s not working for him – at 35.0, he’s even behind Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson 29.0. Fox News’ opinionist-in-chief Tucker Carlson is a rather surprising 34.0 shot.
So far there’s little appetite in the market for another TV celebrity to replace The Apprentice’s Donald Trump. Oprah Winfrey, George Clooney and Mark Zuckerberg are the only other ones to get a quote on the leaderboard; but all rate at longshot, triple-digit threats.
For now, the only serious political figures gaining the public’s attention are the new President and Vice President. Although, interestingly, customers are backing VP Kamala Harris (4.61) to take the top job in 2024, not her boss Joe Biden (5.06), who will be about to celebrate his 82nd birthday at the next election. Despite attending the inauguration, former Vice President Mike Pence can’t be hopeful of his chances, with his odds drifting like a barge.
And for the rest of the field? Unsurprisingly, bettors are waiting to see what happens next amongst the two main parties. That said, one name, Republican ex-Governor Nikki Haley (former UN Ambassador under Donald Trump), is seeing a small surge of money, dropping down from prices in the mid-20s into 15.0. So, if you want to take an early punt, the markets are suggesting this is the most likely early candidate to claim the Republican ticket to be America’s 47th President.