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TheLines.com: Oddsmakers take notice of NFL’s early season surprises

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TheLines.com: Oddsmakers take notice of NFL's early season surprises

 

Most NFL seasons offer longshots that defy expectations, and through two weeks the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders are riding high with 2-0 starts. Such surprise teams are a feature of today’s NFL, offering a significant payoff to bettors who identify those with lasting power early and fool’s gold for those teams headed for regression, according to TheLines, which tracks odds in U.S. regulated sports betting markets.

Fresh off their 26-17 road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Raiders are a 5.5-point favorite to topple the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 and get off to a 3-0 start, according to a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including BetAmerica, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, SugarHouse, and Unibet. The odds for Las Vegas to win the Super Bowl moved from +10000 to win the Super Bowl — meaning bettors would win $10,000 for every $100 wagered — to +4700 in just two weeks. Meanwhile, the Panthers dismantled the New Orleans Saints 26-7 in Week 2, and are 7.5-point road favorites to beat the Houston Texans on Thursday night. In starting 2-0, the Panthers have moved from +9000 to win the Super Bowl to +5000 now.

The Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals are also off to surprising 2-0 starts, but neither were considered as big a longshot before Week 1 as the Raiders and Panthers.

Can these teams sustain the hot start to become true contenders? The odds are against them, but none would be the longest of longshots to win a Super Bowl. The 1999 St. Louis Rams were +30000 to win the Super Bowl before that season kicked off, one of the greatest underdogs to win a championship in a major North American sport.

“Two weeks is too early to know whether a particular team can parlay a hot start into contention, or if regression is inevitable,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “But surprise teams like the Panthers and Raiders can offer an intriguing bet even after their odds to win it all have improved.”

The consensus point spreads for Week 3 games, as of Monday, Sept. 20:

  • Carolina Panthers (-7.5) at Houston Texans; over/under 43
  • Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-9); over/under 46.5
  • Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-7.5); over/under 47
  • Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Detroit Lions; over/under 48.5
  • Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-5); over/under 50.5
  • Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7); over/under 54.5
  • New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-3); over/under 43.5
  • Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3); over/under 48.5
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5); over/under 44.5
  • Arizona Cardinals (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars; over/under 52
  • New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-11); over/under 41.5
  • Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-5); over/under 45.5
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-1); over/under 54.5
  • Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Minnesota Vikings; over/under 55.5
  • Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4); over/under 48.5
  • Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4); over/under 51.5

To access the updated futures lines for every NFL team, and for more analysis, visit TheLines.com/odds/super-bowl. To access Week 3 odds, visit www.thelines.com/nfl-week-3-odds-2021/.

Compliance Updates

Gaming CEOs Optimistic on Industry Outlook, Report Evolving Industry Challenges

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Amidst an evolving economic landscape, gaming executives report a positive outlook on future industry business conditions while remaining satisfied with the current business environment, according to the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) Gaming Industry Outlook.

Nearly all gaming executives surveyed characterized the current business environment as good (44%) or satisfactory (50%), mirroring similar sentiment from Q3 2023. Meanwhile, executives are more optimistic about future conditions, with 32 percent of CEOs expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 20 percent in Q3 2023.

“Gaming’s record-setting growth over the last three years has set a new standard for industry success,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “However, as we enter a period of market normalization, continued investment and innovation in offering world-class, responsible entertainment experiences will be required to maintain industry momentum.”

Gaming Executive Panel

Gaming executives have become more positive in their views that overall balance sheet health will improve over the next 6 months (42% net positive), but they expect the pace of revenue growth (13% net negative) and new hiring (22% net negative) to slow. These expectations for decelerating growth have influenced expectations for increases in capital investment and gaming units in operation, with smaller net positive sentiments than before.

  • In contrast to past Outlooks, gaming equipment suppliers are slightly pessimistic about the sale of gaming units for replacement use and new or expansion use (both 13% net negative). However, they remain optimistic about the pace of capital investment (38% net positive).
  • Half of operator CEOs expect capital investments in hotels over the next year to be higher than normal, and compared to last fall, more also expect higher than normal levels of capital investment in meetings and conventions and table games (28%). Meanwhile, 44 percent of CEOs expect increases in food and beverage investment, down from 67 percent in Q3 2023.

These expectations are also informed by evolving macroeconomic challenges. Executives report that inflationary or interest rate concerns continue to be a major factor limiting operations (28%), but these have been overtaken by geo-political risk (34%) and uncertainty of the economic environment (34%) as the biggest limiting factors in the most recent Gaming Executive Panel.

Current Conditions Index
The Current Conditions Index of 102.8 for Q1 indicates solid annualized real economic growth in the industry of 2.8%. This includes gaming revenue, employment and employee wages and salaries. Notably, the Current Conditions Index shows gaming expanding faster than the overall U.S. economy which last week reported 1.6 percent GDP growth in Q1 2024.

Future Conditions Index

The Future Conditions Index stands at 102.2, indicating annualized industry economic activity, after controlling for underlying inflation, is expected to moderately increase over the next six months. This outlook reflects Oxford Economics’ forecast that the U.S. economy will slow during 2024 but avoid recession. Despite a projected economic slowdown, consumer survey results continue to indicate that more than one-third of adults expect to visit a casino during the next 12 months, consistent with prior quarter results.

About the Outlook

The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook is prepared biannually by Oxford Economics. It provides a timely measure of recent industry growth and future expectations. The Q1 2024 survey was conducted between March 28 – April 10, 2024. A total of 32 executives responded, including executives at the major international and domestic gaming companies, tribal gaming operators, single-unit casino operators, major gaming equipment suppliers, and major iGaming and/or sports betting operators.

 

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Compliance Updates

Arizona Department of Gaming Releases February Sports Betting Figures

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PHOENIX – Bettors in Arizona wagered approximately $637.5 million on sports in February of 2024, according to a new report by the Arizona Department of Gaming. This represents an approximate 4.6% increase when compared to February of 2023.

The state collected approximately $2.8 million in privilege fees in the month. You can view the full February report on the ADG website: LINK.

 

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Lottery

New Hampshire Lottery Joins Mega Money Jackpots

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Follows multi-state eInstant record jackpot award of $5.8 million

Instant Win Gaming (IWG), a leading supplier of eInstant games to NASPL and WLA-member lotteries, congratulates the New Hampshire Lottery on joining the Company’s multi-state eInstant progressive, Mega Money Jackpots.

The New Hampshire Lottery launched Jackpot Spectacular, its first game in the Mega Money Jackpots linked progressive pool, for players in the Granite State on April 24th. New Hampshire joins Pennsylvania and Virginia in offering Mega Money Jackpots linked games.

Additionally, IWG congratulates the Virginia Lottery along with its Mega Money Jackpots player who won a record-setting $5.8 million prize. The win sets another new U.S. iLottery record for the largest eInstant prize.

Mega Money Jackpots launched in July 2023, and over the past nine months the game has created eight millionaires. Since launch, more than 240 players across the participating lotteries have won Mega and Minor jackpots totaling more than $20 million.

The amount and frequency of these prizes showcases the excitement of IWG’s Mega Money Jackpots. To achieve this, select eInstants from participating lotteries each contribute a small percentage of the sales to fund the two progressive prize tiers, with IWG administering the settlement of jackpot prize monies on a turnkey basis.

The multi-state eInstant progressive jackpot is powered by IWG’s InstantJackpots. Since all functionality is contained within IWG’s InstantRGS (remote game server), no development support is required by a lottery’s iLottery platform provider. Additionally, new lotteries can join the system regardless of their iLottery platform provider.

Charlie McIntyre, Executive Director at New Hampshire Lottery, said: “Our industry has a proud track record of collaborating across state lotteries. We’re excited to join Mega Money Jackpots and to bring the excitement of it outsized prizes to our players. We know that our contribution will further enhance the game for everyone involved, and we look forward to creating some new millionaires here in New Hampshire.”

Rhydian Fisher, CEO at IWG, said: “Kudos to the team at New Hampshire Lottery. By joining Mega Money Jackpots, collectively we can award even more million dollar prizes to lottery players. Not only is the game frequently creating new millionaires, but it has also been a leading catalyst for new player signups. Fingers crossed that some new millionaires will be created in New Hampshire very soon.”

 

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