Press Releases
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
Leading the charge in the convergence of financial technology and iGaming, Genome, a cutting-edge electronic money institution, is thrilled to announce its strategic partnership with Chilli Partners, a prominent iGaming affiliate program specializing in casino games.
The collaboration marks a pivotal moment in the iGaming industry, bringing together Genome’s expertise in online financial services and Chilli Partners’ prowess in affiliate marketing. The partnership is set to redefine the landscape of affiliate payouts, offering an array of benefits to both affiliates and the iGaming community at large.
“We are excited to embark on this journey with Chilli Partners. By combining our financial expertise with their influential position in the iGaming affiliate space, we aim to set new standards for efficiency and innovation in affiliate payouts,” – noted Genome’s CEO Daumantas Barauskas.
For one, the partnership offers efficient payouts. Affiliates can now enjoy expedited and secure payouts through Genome’s state-of-the-art financial infrastructure, enhancing their overall experience and satisfaction.
It also provides global reach for Chilli Partners, as it can extend its reach to affiliates worldwide with Genome’s international payment capabilities. This allows Chilli Partners to foster a more diverse and expansive network.
The partnership streamlines financial workflows, ensuring seamless transactions and reducing administrative overhead for Chilli Partners, allowing them to focus on delivering top-notch affiliate services.
Genome is all about innovation in payments and online financial services. This approach brings new possibilities for payment options, providing flexibility and convenience for affiliates participating in the Chilli Partners program.
Lastly, the collaboration prioritizes compliance and risk management, assuring affiliates of secure and compliant transactions in accordance with industry regulations.
“This partnership aligns perfectly with our commitment to providing the best possible experience for our affiliates. Genome’s advanced financial services will play a crucial role in elevating our affiliate program to new heights”, – added Clayton Zammit Cesare, Head of Affiliates at Chilli Partners.
As the iGaming industry continues to evolve, Genome and Chilli Partners stand united in their dedication to driving positive change, innovation, and reliability. The partnership is poised to create a ripple effect, positively impacting the entire iGaming ecosystem.
About Genome
Genome is a leading EMI that provides innovative financial services, including batch payouts, SWIFT, and SEPA transfers. With a focus on efficiency and compliance, Genome empowers businesses across various industries, including iGaming, to streamline financial operations and enhance user experiences.
For more information, please visit https://genome.eu/
About Chilli Partners
Chilli Partners is a prominent iGaming affiliate program specializing in casino games. With a commitment to excellence, Chilli Partners connects affiliates with top-tier iGaming brands, offering a lucrative partnership that includes competitive commission structures and tailored support.
For more information, please visit https://chillipartners.com/
Latest News
Rivalry Announces 2023 Annual Letter to Shareholders and Filing of 2023 Annual Financial Statements
Rivalry Corp. (the “Company” or “Rivalry”) (TSXV: RVLY) (OTCQX: RVLCF) (FSE: 9VK), the leading sportsbook and iGaming operator for Gen Z, is pleased to announce its 2023 annual letter to shareholders and the filing of its financial results for the three (3) and 12-month period ended December 31, 2023. All dollar figures are quoted in Canadian dollars.
2023 Annual Letter to Shareholders
To our Shareholders,
This time last year I spoke about Rivalry’s evolution from a market leader in esports to a diversified Company setting the standard for Gen Z betting entertainment broadly.
Today, we have a business with revenue distribution across casino, sports, and esports betting, growing market share in new geographies, with increased velocity in core regions, and the strongest customer KPIs in Rivalry’s history.
In 2023, Rivalry recorded $423.2 million in betting handle1, up 82% from the previous year. Similarly, gross gaming revenue2 and net revenue both saw 34% and 66% respective increases, while the introduction of higher margin products released in H2 such as Same Game Combos and Quick Combos are continuing to improve overall sportsbook hold and guide Rivalry closer to profitability.
Our deepened product suite now includes fantasy, additional sports coverage, and new proprietary casino games. All of which are uniquely driving growth among a targeted customer segment and widening our opportunity set in 2024 and beyond – from a 60% increase in traditional sports betting to a burgeoning B2B game vertical. The potential for how far our brand can go is just beginning to unfold.
The year ahead is rife with new, innovative product releases arriving in Q2 and continuing throughout 2024. We are doubling down on core growth opportunities in sports that resonate with our audience, such as basketball and soccer. Further, we are building on a successful casino segment which already represents 50% of our business, enhancing variety, depth, and accessibility, as well as developing new original games which blur the lines between betting and entertainment. We are in the process of additional geographic expansion, and pursuing new licenses to broaden our total addressable market, positioning Rivalry to own the Gen Z gambling opportunity globally.
While Rivalry’s operations have expanded into new high-growth verticals, our north star has remained the same: to define the future of online gambling for a generation born on the internet.
Online gambling in 2024 is radically different than it was just six years ago when Rivalry launched. In that time we’ve seen gaming and internet culture reshape how consumers engage with technology. That shift is broadening the definition of gambling, where product design is influenced by video games, or it exists fully embedded within social apps like Telegram, where content creators are the new affiliates, and much more.
Over the same period, the rise of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology has introduced a new level of speed, access, and security to web-based consumer experiences. Industry estimates now put crypto wagers at up to one quarter of global betting handle3, with 30% year-over-year growth in 20244, and showing no signs of slowing down.
The development of this ecosystem has commercially unlocked online gambling unlike anything since its first transition from land to online many years ago. It has brought in a new global audience, and enriched the customer experience from end-to-end.
Alongside the growth of this technology has emerged new methods of gambling, taking wallet share from more traditional forms at an accelerated rate. The shift in consumer behavior and the signal from our users is clear – interactive, volatile, and crypto-infused product experiences will set the precedent for how the next generation gambles online.
Rivalry, with a brand steeped in internet culture and living at the intersection of this digital economic renaissance, is well-positioned to access this growth opportunity. There is high overlap between Gen Z, gamers, gamblers, and a fast-growing audience of over 420 million crypto users worldwide5 organically aligned with our audience and brand. And we believe that more than half of this audience globally is already wagering with crypto.
It will be Rivalry’s ability to understand, implement, and adapt to this shift more rapidly than our peers that we expect to create first-mover advantages for us. It is for that reason that our vision is now bolder than ever for what’s possible in the online gambling category.
Soon, we will reveal plans for a crypto-enabled product set to enhance alignment between Rivalry and its users, increase network effects, and generally deliver a consumer experience that lives on the internet of 2024.
To that effect, the success of our first-party games and their ability to acquire and engage a captive audience of Gen Z bettors online has validated our original game development strategy amongst industry peers. This has unlocked a new commercial opportunity for Rivalry to license its IP, opening up another line of revenue for the business that has great potential for global scale.
The year ahead is poised to be one of our most ground-breaking, with a myriad of innovative product releases across all of Rivalry’s verticals, adding more dimension to our business, operations, and addressable audience, and building on our competitive moat as the market leader in Gen Z betting entertainment.
We look forward to sharing more details about these upcoming initiatives, the opportunities they will unlock for our Company, and delivering on our promise to create long-term shareholder value and reach profitability. Thank you all for your continued support.
Fast Track, the leading provider of player engagement solutions to the online gaming industry, is proud to announce its latest partnership with Playstar Casino, a leading online casino licensed and operating exclusively in the Garden State of New Jersey.
Playstar Casino is renowned for its relentless focus and passion for providing the best player experiences in the market. Understanding this need as core to future success, Playstar sought a partner capable of delivering unparalleled solutions to enhance player engagement through AI-powered customer journeys and build 1:1 experiences at scale for each player and found Fast Track.
Using advanced AI, machine learning and real-time data insights, Fast Track provides the ideal solution to streamline operations and amplify player engagement, enabling Playstar to execute its strategy at scale and increase productivity.
Jon Bowden, Chief Marketing Officer of Playstar Casino, expressed his confidence in their choice, stating, “At Playstar, the player experience is paramount. Fast Track was the obvious choice for us due to their commitment to supporting our growth goals. We’re keen to automate the bulk of our strategy and work with the most advanced technology for personalization and modeling.
Jean-Luc Ferrière, Managing Director Americas at Fast Track, echoed this sentiment, remarking, “It’s always exciting for us to partner with an operator so dedicated to offering an unparalleled player experience. The team is very keen to start collaborating with Playstar to help them achieve and exceed their business objectives.”
The partnership between Fast Track and Playstar Casino marks an exciting chapter for both organizations as they work together to elevate player experiences and drive sustainable growth in the US online gaming market.
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