Brazil avoids a fiscal shock and betting enters the reputational phase in LATAM

The removal of CIDE-Bets and Brazil’s regulatory learning curve

Brazil’s Congress produced this week the most relevant move since the opening of the regulated market: the exclusion of the so-called CIDE-Bets from the “anti-crime bill”.

The contribution, previously included in the Senate version, could generate up to R$30 billion annually and would apply directly to betting operations, with practical impact on user deposits.

Its removal followed intense political negotiation and a coordinated industry reaction, which argued that the measure targeted the most sensitive point of the economic model: player conversion into the legal environment.

Unlike taxation on operational revenue, taxes perceived directly by users tend to immediately alter behavior — especially in newly regulated markets where offshore alternatives remain accessible.

The episode marks a relevant moment of institutional learning.

The government did not abandon its revenue logic — the tax burden on GGR remains scheduled to reach 15% by 2028 — but implicitly acknowledged the need to preserve the market channelization phase.

In mature jurisdictions, the initial capture of players to licensed operators is usually prioritized before fiscal maximization. Brazil’s decision indicates gradual alignment with this logic.

More than a simple retreat, the case reveals the structural tension of the model: the country simultaneously holds one of the world’s largest tax potentials and a consolidated offshore consumption culture.

Any tax imbalance can push volume outside the regulated system faster than it generates additional public revenue.

Therefore, the discussion does not disappear. The removal of CIDE does not end the fiscal debate — it merely postpones a more aggressive revenue attempt.

The topic remains on the political radar, especially amid the search for funding for public security and fiscal balance.

From taxation to public perception: advertising becomes the new battlefield

Almost simultaneously with the tax relief, the legislative focus shifted direction.

A bill approved in a Senate committee proposes restricting betting advertising and sponsorships in Brazilian sports, directly affecting the sector’s main acquisition channel.

Clubs and industry representatives estimate an impact above R$1.6 billion annually in football financing, alongside a likely migration of investment toward less controllable channels such as foreign platforms and indirect advertising.

The debate shifts its axis: it stops asking how much the sector collects and starts asking how visible it should be.

This transition typically marks the second regulatory phase of betting markets.

After defining licenses and taxes, lawmakers begin responding to social and media pressure. Brazil reached this stage rapidly, still during companies’ operational consolidation.

In practice, this alters the nature of competition. Operators stop competing only for marketing scale and start competing for public legitimacy.

Institutional communication, user education and protection policies become strategic assets — not merely regulatory obligations.

The regional signal: Chile and the inevitable migration to online

While Brazil debates limits to sector growth, data released in Chile helps contextualize the regional phenomenon.

The regulator reported a 4.5% drop in land-based casino GGR in 2025, reinforcing an international trend: gambling demand does not disappear — it changes channels.

The country still debates online regulation while consumer behavior has already migrated to digital.

The practical result is reduced revenue from the supervised channel without proportional reduction in activity.

The example began to be implicitly cited within the Brazilian debate. It illustrates a recurring dilemma in emerging markets: excessive restrictions do not eliminate consumption — they only reduce oversight capacity.

For Brazil — whose central regulatory objective is to channel a historically offshore market — the evidence reinforces the importance of regulatory balance.

The challenge is not preventing the activity, but integrating it into the formal system.

The beginning of a new phase for operators

The week’s movements suggest a structural transition. The Brazilian market leaves the normative implementation stage and enters the operational legitimacy phase.

Growth continues, but its nature changes.

Competition tends to migrate from aggressive acquisition to qualified retention; from bonuses to experience; from visibility to trust.

In markets undergoing this phase, compliance, behavioral monitoring and reputation gain direct economic impact.

Political debate also evolves.

The discussion ceases to be exclusively fiscal and starts incorporating social responsibility, player protection and sustainability of the sports ecosystem.

This is traditionally the point where the sector stops being treated as an economic novelty and becomes a permanent activity.

Latin America, led by Brazil, begins entering this stage.

Growth does not necessarily slow — but it stops being expansion and becomes structure.

SBC Summit Rio 2026: the regulated market enters its operational phase

An event that shifts from launch to infrastructure

The SBC Summit Rio reaches its third edition at a structurally different moment for the Brazilian market.

In 2024 it functioned as a meeting point of expectations; in 2025 as validation of scale; in 2026 it essentially becomes an operational platform.

The industry no longer debates whether Brazil will work — it debates how to operate better within it.

“The Brazilian market doesn’t stop. In the third year, the conversation becomes deeper. Companies want clarity, direct dialogue with regulators and connections with operators working daily.

That’s what we prioritized in Rio. Business happens during the day — and, of course, we make sure the nights are enjoyed as well,” said Rasmus Sojmark, founder and CEO of SBC.

Held from March 3-5 at Riocentro in Rio de Janeiro, the meeting will gather operators, affiliates, studios, platforms, payment providers, regulators and tech suppliers in an environment whose focus shifts from educational to tactical.

The main objective now is to transform the practical experience of the first regulated cycle into measurable competitive advantage.

Executives seek three specific answers: acquisition efficiency, payment stability and legal predictability.

The event was structured precisely around these three axes.

The first regulated year as a real laboratory

The Brazilian market produced an unusual phenomenon: immediate scale combined with operational uncertainty.

The result was a collective experiment where companies simultaneously learned — under real financial risk — how to operate in a continental country with instant payments infrastructure and mass digital betting culture.

The Summit analyzes lessons from this first year: PIX fraud, advertising pressure, real-time compliance, media costs and effective conversion of recreational users into recurring customers.

The debate no longer revolves around “entering Brazil” but “remaining profitable in Brazil”.

More than 150 specialists will participate in panels across three stages addressing leadership, technology, payments, marketing and affiliation.

The focus reveals the sector’s shift: compliance stops being cost and becomes product.

Payments: the real battlefield

No other major market combines PIX infrastructure with such a high volume of first-time users.

This turned payments into the main competitive differentiator among operators.

The emerging consensus is clear: payments stopped being back-office and became the operator’s core product.

From hype to ROI:

In 2024 the focus was brand presence.
In 2025 acquisition.
In 2026 financial return.

Companies begin measuring real cost per active player, not just registrations.

The SBC Summit Rio 2026 symbolizes the sector’s entry into adulthood.

The main topic is no longer growth — it is sustainability.

The industry no longer seeks to understand Brazil.
It seeks to learn how to make consistent money in it.

SOFTSWISS joins ANJL

SOFTSWISS became an official member of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), becoming the first technology provider to join the entity.

At the same time, Carla Dualib, the company’s Business Development Manager for Brazil, joined the board as Communications Director while maintaining her corporate role.

ANJL represents licensed operators and key stakeholders in Brazil’s betting and lottery sector, working with regulators to promote a transparent and sustainable market.

By joining, SOFTSWISS reinforces the role of technology providers within the regulated ecosystem, contributing compliance expertise, market knowledge and responsible development.

As communications director, Dualib will strengthen dialogue between industry and authorities and improve institutional communication across the sector.

The company continues expanding in Latin America and will attend SBC Summit Rio 2026, where its team will be available for meetings.