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PlayUSA.com: NCAA Tournament likely the first $1 billion event

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TheLines.com:Prop bets a key feature of Super Bowl betting, but not all our legal in the U.S.

 

The 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will almost certainly be the first sporting event in U.S. history to draw more than $1 billion in legal wagering and could approach $1.5 billion, according to projections from PlayUSA, the leading source for news, analysis, and research related to the market for regulated online gaming in the United States. But without data from last year following the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament, and a regulated sports betting landscape that has radically changed from 2019, predicting precisely just how much in wagering March Madness will generate is nearly impossible, PlayUSA cautions.

“The 2021 NCAA Tournament will be the most widely bet-on sporting event in U.S. history,” said Eric Ramsey, analyst for PlayUSA.com. “The popularity of the NCAA Tournament combined with such a high number of games typically makes March Madness the largest sports betting holiday each year in terms of handle, and there is no reason to suspect that won’t be the case this year. But the number of legal sports betting markets has more than tripled since 2019 and we are still in the midst of a pandemic that could slow retail sportsbooks. Those reasons alone make this year difficult to predict.”

The last time the NCAA Tournament was played in 2019, bettors in seven states could place a wager legally. Those seven states, which includes today’s three largest markets, New Jersey, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, as well as Delaware, Mississippi, Rhode Island, and West Virginia, managed to generate an estimated $440 million in bets, or about 40% of the nation’s overall handle in March, according to PlayUSA.

Now with 20 states and Washington D.C. offering some form of legal sports betting, the U.S. landscape has shifted dramatically. That includes most of the nation’s largest markets behind the Top 3, including Illinois, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, and Michigan. And Pennsylvania, now the nation’s third-largest market, launched online sports betting after the 2019 tournament.

Today, an adult population of about 86 million can now bet legally in their home states. In 2019, about 26 million adults enjoyed access to legal sportsbooks in their home states.

“The Super Bowl draws the most bets for a single game, but March Madness and its 60+ games should more than double what the Super Bowl draws,” said Dustin Gouker, lead analyst for PlayUSA.com. “But the dramatic expansion of legal markets, as well as the exponential growth within each market, means more people will have an opportunity to bet on the NCAA Tournament than ever before. And that will produce an eye-popping handle number that could reach $1.5 billion.”

2021 also brings multiple factors that will be unique to this year’s tournament. For one, pandemic-related restrictions are still in place in some legal jurisdictions, and most bettors may still be hesitant to make a bet indoors. That could have a significant effect on event-driven markets like Nevada, which relies on retail betting far more than in most of its largest rivals. New Jersey, for instance, accepts about 90% of its bets online, and PlayUSA projects that the Garden State could draw more than $300 million in NCAA Tournament bets this year, more than any other state.

In addition, for the first time in history every game of the NCAA Tournament will be played in a legal sports jurisdiction. With so many games being played locally, that jurisdiction, Indiana, has the potential to far outperform what would normally be expected of the nation’s fifth-largest U.S. sports betting market.

“With so many variables at play, this will be a fascinating NCAA Tournament to watch,” Ramsey said. “We know that the tournament will draw heavy action. But it won’t look like any NCAA Tournament that we have ever seen.” 

For more information on NCAA Tournament betting, visit www.playusa.com/march-madness-betting/.

Compliance Updates

Gaming CEOs Optimistic on Industry Outlook, Report Evolving Industry Challenges

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Amidst an evolving economic landscape, gaming executives report a positive outlook on future industry business conditions while remaining satisfied with the current business environment, according to the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) Gaming Industry Outlook.

Nearly all gaming executives surveyed characterized the current business environment as good (44%) or satisfactory (50%), mirroring similar sentiment from Q3 2023. Meanwhile, executives are more optimistic about future conditions, with 32 percent of CEOs expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 20 percent in Q3 2023.

“Gaming’s record-setting growth over the last three years has set a new standard for industry success,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “However, as we enter a period of market normalization, continued investment and innovation in offering world-class, responsible entertainment experiences will be required to maintain industry momentum.”

Gaming Executive Panel

Gaming executives have become more positive in their views that overall balance sheet health will improve over the next 6 months (42% net positive), but they expect the pace of revenue growth (13% net negative) and new hiring (22% net negative) to slow. These expectations for decelerating growth have influenced expectations for increases in capital investment and gaming units in operation, with smaller net positive sentiments than before.

  • In contrast to past Outlooks, gaming equipment suppliers are slightly pessimistic about the sale of gaming units for replacement use and new or expansion use (both 13% net negative). However, they remain optimistic about the pace of capital investment (38% net positive).
  • Half of operator CEOs expect capital investments in hotels over the next year to be higher than normal, and compared to last fall, more also expect higher than normal levels of capital investment in meetings and conventions and table games (28%). Meanwhile, 44 percent of CEOs expect increases in food and beverage investment, down from 67 percent in Q3 2023.

These expectations are also informed by evolving macroeconomic challenges. Executives report that inflationary or interest rate concerns continue to be a major factor limiting operations (28%), but these have been overtaken by geo-political risk (34%) and uncertainty of the economic environment (34%) as the biggest limiting factors in the most recent Gaming Executive Panel.

Current Conditions Index
The Current Conditions Index of 102.8 for Q1 indicates solid annualized real economic growth in the industry of 2.8%. This includes gaming revenue, employment and employee wages and salaries. Notably, the Current Conditions Index shows gaming expanding faster than the overall U.S. economy which last week reported 1.6 percent GDP growth in Q1 2024.

Future Conditions Index

The Future Conditions Index stands at 102.2, indicating annualized industry economic activity, after controlling for underlying inflation, is expected to moderately increase over the next six months. This outlook reflects Oxford Economics’ forecast that the U.S. economy will slow during 2024 but avoid recession. Despite a projected economic slowdown, consumer survey results continue to indicate that more than one-third of adults expect to visit a casino during the next 12 months, consistent with prior quarter results.

About the Outlook

The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook is prepared biannually by Oxford Economics. It provides a timely measure of recent industry growth and future expectations. The Q1 2024 survey was conducted between March 28 – April 10, 2024. A total of 32 executives responded, including executives at the major international and domestic gaming companies, tribal gaming operators, single-unit casino operators, major gaming equipment suppliers, and major iGaming and/or sports betting operators.

 

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Compliance Updates

Arizona Department of Gaming Releases February Sports Betting Figures

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PHOENIX – Bettors in Arizona wagered approximately $637.5 million on sports in February of 2024, according to a new report by the Arizona Department of Gaming. This represents an approximate 4.6% increase when compared to February of 2023.

The state collected approximately $2.8 million in privilege fees in the month. You can view the full February report on the ADG website: LINK.

 

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Lottery

New Hampshire Lottery Joins Mega Money Jackpots

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Follows multi-state eInstant record jackpot award of $5.8 million

Instant Win Gaming (IWG), a leading supplier of eInstant games to NASPL and WLA-member lotteries, congratulates the New Hampshire Lottery on joining the Company’s multi-state eInstant progressive, Mega Money Jackpots.

The New Hampshire Lottery launched Jackpot Spectacular, its first game in the Mega Money Jackpots linked progressive pool, for players in the Granite State on April 24th. New Hampshire joins Pennsylvania and Virginia in offering Mega Money Jackpots linked games.

Additionally, IWG congratulates the Virginia Lottery along with its Mega Money Jackpots player who won a record-setting $5.8 million prize. The win sets another new U.S. iLottery record for the largest eInstant prize.

Mega Money Jackpots launched in July 2023, and over the past nine months the game has created eight millionaires. Since launch, more than 240 players across the participating lotteries have won Mega and Minor jackpots totaling more than $20 million.

The amount and frequency of these prizes showcases the excitement of IWG’s Mega Money Jackpots. To achieve this, select eInstants from participating lotteries each contribute a small percentage of the sales to fund the two progressive prize tiers, with IWG administering the settlement of jackpot prize monies on a turnkey basis.

The multi-state eInstant progressive jackpot is powered by IWG’s InstantJackpots. Since all functionality is contained within IWG’s InstantRGS (remote game server), no development support is required by a lottery’s iLottery platform provider. Additionally, new lotteries can join the system regardless of their iLottery platform provider.

Charlie McIntyre, Executive Director at New Hampshire Lottery, said: “Our industry has a proud track record of collaborating across state lotteries. We’re excited to join Mega Money Jackpots and to bring the excitement of it outsized prizes to our players. We know that our contribution will further enhance the game for everyone involved, and we look forward to creating some new millionaires here in New Hampshire.”

Rhydian Fisher, CEO at IWG, said: “Kudos to the team at New Hampshire Lottery. By joining Mega Money Jackpots, collectively we can award even more million dollar prizes to lottery players. Not only is the game frequently creating new millionaires, but it has also been a leading catalyst for new player signups. Fingers crossed that some new millionaires will be created in New Hampshire very soon.”

 

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