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TheLines.com: Bettors react to quarterback uncertainty ahead of NFL’s conference championships

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Champion Gaming Celebrates 20 Years of Advanced Football Analytics with Announcement of The Historical NFL Coach Aggressiveness Index

 

Like the NFL itself, the NFL’s conference championship games will be quarterback-driven. In Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen, the AFC and NFC championship games feature a matchup of two of the greatest to ever play and another featuring the brightest stars of the NFL’s younger generation. But in a quarterback-driven league, the health status of a star like Mahomes has the power to create big odds swings, according to TheLines, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.

A look at a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, PlaySugarHouse, BetMGM, Unibet, and William Hill, shows just how quickly things can change. With Mahomes in the league’s five-step concussion protocol, the Buffalo Bills opened on Sunday night as a 1.5-point favorite over the reigning champions Chiefs. But as bettors look to cash in on a favorable line as the status of Mahomes remains uncertain, Kansas City has been bet to a 2.5-point home favorite. Mahomes’ status may be weighing on the oddsmakers’ point total, too. In a game featuring two of the top offenses in a historical offensive year, the over/under of 54 points is just the third-highest in the last 10 years of the AFC Championship.

In the NFC, a matchup of two certain Hall of Famers offers more clarity. Set for frigid Lambeau Field, the Packers sit as 3.5.-point favorites. Home teams are 33-17 straight up and 27-22-1 against the spread in the NFC Championship game since 1970. Green Bay, though, is 1-3 against the spread in NFC Championship games in which Rodgers starts. Brady’s teams, on the other hand, are 9-3 against the spread in conference championship games, all with the New England Patriots.

“It’s rare that the status of a team lynchpin like Patrick Mahomes is so uncertain ahead of a conference championship game, so the consensus point spread will likely keep shifting as bettors make speculative plays,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “Add a matchup between two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever live, both with long, intriguing histories in conference championship games, and this could be the most interesting championship weekend for bettors that we’ve seen in a very long time.”

The consensus point spreads for the AFC and NFC Championship games, as of Monday, Jan. 18:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5); over/under 51
  • Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5); over/under 54

The current odds for remaining playoff teams to win Super Bowl LV as of Monday, Jan. 18 (with preseason odds):

  • Kansas City Chiefs +200 (+600)
  • Green Bay Packers +220 (+3100)
  • Buffalo Bills +325 (+2500)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +450 (+1500)

To access updated NFL playoff lines and Super Bowl odds, and for more analysis, visit TheLines.com/odds/nfl-playoffs.

About TheLines.com:
TheLines.com is a leading source for news, analysis, and research related to the market for regulated sports betting in the United States. Affiliated with the PlayUSA.com Network, TheLines.com provides original daily reporting and offers player advocacy tools related to the advancement of safe, licensed, and legal online sports betting. Based in Las Vegas, the PlayUSA Network is independently owned and operated, with no affiliations to any casino — commercial, tribal, online, or otherwise.

Compliance Updates

Gaming CEOs Optimistic on Industry Outlook, Report Evolving Industry Challenges

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Amidst an evolving economic landscape, gaming executives report a positive outlook on future industry business conditions while remaining satisfied with the current business environment, according to the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) Gaming Industry Outlook.

Nearly all gaming executives surveyed characterized the current business environment as good (44%) or satisfactory (50%), mirroring similar sentiment from Q3 2023. Meanwhile, executives are more optimistic about future conditions, with 32 percent of CEOs expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 20 percent in Q3 2023.

“Gaming’s record-setting growth over the last three years has set a new standard for industry success,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “However, as we enter a period of market normalization, continued investment and innovation in offering world-class, responsible entertainment experiences will be required to maintain industry momentum.”

Gaming Executive Panel

Gaming executives have become more positive in their views that overall balance sheet health will improve over the next 6 months (42% net positive), but they expect the pace of revenue growth (13% net negative) and new hiring (22% net negative) to slow. These expectations for decelerating growth have influenced expectations for increases in capital investment and gaming units in operation, with smaller net positive sentiments than before.

  • In contrast to past Outlooks, gaming equipment suppliers are slightly pessimistic about the sale of gaming units for replacement use and new or expansion use (both 13% net negative). However, they remain optimistic about the pace of capital investment (38% net positive).
  • Half of operator CEOs expect capital investments in hotels over the next year to be higher than normal, and compared to last fall, more also expect higher than normal levels of capital investment in meetings and conventions and table games (28%). Meanwhile, 44 percent of CEOs expect increases in food and beverage investment, down from 67 percent in Q3 2023.

These expectations are also informed by evolving macroeconomic challenges. Executives report that inflationary or interest rate concerns continue to be a major factor limiting operations (28%), but these have been overtaken by geo-political risk (34%) and uncertainty of the economic environment (34%) as the biggest limiting factors in the most recent Gaming Executive Panel.

Current Conditions Index
The Current Conditions Index of 102.8 for Q1 indicates solid annualized real economic growth in the industry of 2.8%. This includes gaming revenue, employment and employee wages and salaries. Notably, the Current Conditions Index shows gaming expanding faster than the overall U.S. economy which last week reported 1.6 percent GDP growth in Q1 2024.

Future Conditions Index

The Future Conditions Index stands at 102.2, indicating annualized industry economic activity, after controlling for underlying inflation, is expected to moderately increase over the next six months. This outlook reflects Oxford Economics’ forecast that the U.S. economy will slow during 2024 but avoid recession. Despite a projected economic slowdown, consumer survey results continue to indicate that more than one-third of adults expect to visit a casino during the next 12 months, consistent with prior quarter results.

About the Outlook

The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook is prepared biannually by Oxford Economics. It provides a timely measure of recent industry growth and future expectations. The Q1 2024 survey was conducted between March 28 – April 10, 2024. A total of 32 executives responded, including executives at the major international and domestic gaming companies, tribal gaming operators, single-unit casino operators, major gaming equipment suppliers, and major iGaming and/or sports betting operators.

 

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Compliance Updates

Arizona Department of Gaming Releases February Sports Betting Figures

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PHOENIX – Bettors in Arizona wagered approximately $637.5 million on sports in February of 2024, according to a new report by the Arizona Department of Gaming. This represents an approximate 4.6% increase when compared to February of 2023.

The state collected approximately $2.8 million in privilege fees in the month. You can view the full February report on the ADG website: LINK.

 

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New Hampshire Lottery Joins Mega Money Jackpots

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Follows multi-state eInstant record jackpot award of $5.8 million

Instant Win Gaming (IWG), a leading supplier of eInstant games to NASPL and WLA-member lotteries, congratulates the New Hampshire Lottery on joining the Company’s multi-state eInstant progressive, Mega Money Jackpots.

The New Hampshire Lottery launched Jackpot Spectacular, its first game in the Mega Money Jackpots linked progressive pool, for players in the Granite State on April 24th. New Hampshire joins Pennsylvania and Virginia in offering Mega Money Jackpots linked games.

Additionally, IWG congratulates the Virginia Lottery along with its Mega Money Jackpots player who won a record-setting $5.8 million prize. The win sets another new U.S. iLottery record for the largest eInstant prize.

Mega Money Jackpots launched in July 2023, and over the past nine months the game has created eight millionaires. Since launch, more than 240 players across the participating lotteries have won Mega and Minor jackpots totaling more than $20 million.

The amount and frequency of these prizes showcases the excitement of IWG’s Mega Money Jackpots. To achieve this, select eInstants from participating lotteries each contribute a small percentage of the sales to fund the two progressive prize tiers, with IWG administering the settlement of jackpot prize monies on a turnkey basis.

The multi-state eInstant progressive jackpot is powered by IWG’s InstantJackpots. Since all functionality is contained within IWG’s InstantRGS (remote game server), no development support is required by a lottery’s iLottery platform provider. Additionally, new lotteries can join the system regardless of their iLottery platform provider.

Charlie McIntyre, Executive Director at New Hampshire Lottery, said: “Our industry has a proud track record of collaborating across state lotteries. We’re excited to join Mega Money Jackpots and to bring the excitement of it outsized prizes to our players. We know that our contribution will further enhance the game for everyone involved, and we look forward to creating some new millionaires here in New Hampshire.”

Rhydian Fisher, CEO at IWG, said: “Kudos to the team at New Hampshire Lottery. By joining Mega Money Jackpots, collectively we can award even more million dollar prizes to lottery players. Not only is the game frequently creating new millionaires, but it has also been a leading catalyst for new player signups. Fingers crossed that some new millionaires will be created in New Hampshire very soon.”

 

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