The buzz around a fully-regulated Brazilian sports betting market has been amplified since the passing of legislation in late December 2023. As operators await the publication of a regulatory framework later this year, many industry stakeholders are trying to prepare themselves for meeting licensing requirements.

Marc Crean, OpenBet’s VP for Latin America, shares predictions for the months ahead.

After a two-decade wait for a legalised gambling market, Brazil’s president, Luiz Inacio da Silva, has now sanctioned law 14790 to approve gambling regulation in the booming LatAm market. The government has been engaging key stakeholders and giving regular and transparent updates over recent months and the path to regulation looks optimistic with a thriving market is in sight.

There are strong opinions from all sides about Brazilian regulation and how it should look, yet there is great potential to create new revenue streams and jobs for the country, which is generally viewed as the jewel in the crown of LatAm’s sports betting market. However, before the market can operate smoothly, sustainably, and safely, the serious issues of match-fixing, money laundering and responsible gaming must be ironed out. A highly publicised investigation concerning allegations of widespread match-fixing is still ongoing, with seven professional football players charged for alleged crimes in the scandal.

The government wants to establish a market that provides sports betting entertainment to Brazilians, generates revenue for the country and protects local players and institutions as quickly as possible, but the specifics of the regulations will change over time as technology develops. The framework must be flexible enough to cope with changing demands and stay one step ahead of illegal operations when it is finalised.

One introduction is a 12% GGR tax on operators, which is a sustainable rate and in line with other successful regions, as well as a 15% tax on bettors’ net gains. This is expected to generate R$3 billion in revenue for the Brazilian government each year. However, while the government will struggle to satisfy all stakeholders, taxes are not unique to Brazil nor to sports betting. Most market estimates have Brazil as third or fourth in the world in terms of size, and the proposed cost of a license is in line with UK and US costs.

What is clear is that Brazilian regulators must exercise caution on a proposed tax on player winnings. There is room to do this successfully based on how the tax imposition is implemented. It is in the law, so it is going to be in place, but the devil is in the details. It has been seen again and again how this type of tax, whilst well-intentioned, can reduce channelisation and end up pushing people to black market sites.

Shaping the industry of the future

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Brazil has its own unique cultural, social and economic dynamics that will have a major influence on product, operations and marketing activities. Regulation will create a massive amount of local opportunity both on the supply and the operator side of our industry. However, people tend to overestimate the need for local product and underestimate the need for local marketing and operations. This invariably creates opportunities for local companies and I think this is healthy for our industry.

Early-adoption, innovation and an unparalleled consumption of social media are three local dynamics that will have a massive impact on the shape of the industry. As always, companies with boots on the ground will be better placed to understand and tap into these areas.

When you add in the size of the market and the passion for sports, we can expect to see a lot of new ideas and innovations coming out of Brazil once the market fully opens up and starts to flourish.